Curse of Indian SME’s

Over the years Indian Small Scale Sector has been able to create a significant position for itself in the Indian industrial economy. By employing around 28.3 million people it becomes the second highest source of employment in India. Apart from this it accounts for 49% of overall exports.

SME’s in India are dominant in sectors like textiles, chemicals, auto components, leather and machine tools. With the current slowdown mounting, this sector scores high rank of coming into its grip. This is evident from the fact that despite of 2 fiscal packages announced by government and easing of interest rate by RBI to infuse much needed liquidity in this sector banks are still hesitant to lend them due to their low creditworthiness.

Let’s look at the better picture of it:

Leather Industry
For instance let’s look at the case of leather industry; this sector was registering growth of about 20% in second half of 2008 but got crumpled by global slowdown. The main reason is accounted as slowdown in orders from western markets like UK & USA. The European Union and US markets contributes to about 25% to 65% of Indian export revenue.
Apart from this competition from china is becoming tough as Chinese government helping them to follow aggressive export policy which in turn helping them to bag more orders. If such scenario continues it is estimated that about 2-3 lakhs of jobs will be lost out of 25 lakhs of total workers employed and number can further increase.

Small service industry
In this aspect there is one interesting example to watch out; we all know how radio cabs industry has gained momentum in past few years. Estimates show that chauffeurs use to earn around 15000 per month around few months back, but with downfall in business their incomes have scaled down to 3000-4000 per month. This drastic decline in incomes of these chauffeurs is due to decline in number of duties on daily basis and burden of daily subscription of Rs 700 which is mandatory for them to pay.
If we need to check out an example of particular industry this one I Found out in one of the newspapers was of Chakradhar Chemicals Pvt Ltd, a medium-sized 13,000-tonne capacity micronutrient fertilizer company based in Uttar Pradesh. Company employs around 70 people and has been hard hit by rising cost of raw material and transport while salary expenses have increased by 16% on year-on-year basis.

Textile Industry
If we go 2 years back i.e. around 2007 Indian textile industry was on brink of rapid growth. However in present day the industry is pleading for urgent help for its resurrection. India is the world’s second largest exporter and consumer of cotton. In past few months cotton prices have surged nearly by 30% which has wiped of the demand for cotton textiles and garments from international markets. This has resulted in workers of textile industries to go for forceful voluntary retirement.

As discussed above major demand for Indian textile comes from US and Europe, with these countries battling the slowdown demand has been completely wiped of, this is despite of rupee depreciation, which is beneficial for exporters.
Numerical estimates show that Indian exports declined from $3.9 billion to 3.8 billion from the month of January to August, which was before US meltdown in September. The overall drop in value terms was 1.6 percent, with the drop in exports of garments a much higher 4.8 percent. The situation has worsened; total output of the textile sector has dwindled down to 10%. Study conducted in November by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) pointed out that investments in the textiles industry were falling and so was its profitability.

I figured out few examples which have been hardly hit by this recession. While traveling by train in state of Punjab , as soon as train arrives in city Ludhiana , the recorded voice says city’s textile industries contributes about 80% of the country’s wool production. However but present day situation is different , most of the garment companies in city have suffer losses more than 50% over the last year , which creates 4,00,000 jobs in Ludhiana itself.

Remedy for This!
According to estimates of ASSOCHAM (Associated Chambers of commerce and industry of India) the SME’s were becoming tender during its first quarter with both manufacturing and hiring dwindling down to 10% and 7% respectively.

Therefore need of the hour is to restructure loan repayment plans for textile companies. According to most of the experts the medicine which can heal this bruised industry is easier terms for bank credit and reduction in taxes for textiles.

Let’s hope the new government which will form after upcoming general elections provide some respite to this beated down sector

Perspective of Fiscal Multiplier

Though we are in amidst of a severe financial turmoil, but this gives us opportunity to learn the working of various concepts of macroeconomics in reality , which we have always studied in books. One of such interesting concept which strikes my mind recently was how is fiscal multiplier working when governments of all countries are resorting to massive bailouts.

Let’s first have a brief look on concept of fiscal multipliers:
According to Wikipedia Fiscal Policy Multiplier refers to the idea that the initial amount of money spent by government leads to an even greater increase in national income. In other words an initial change in aggregate demand causes a change in aggregate output for the output that is multiple of the initial change.

In view of government bailouts, where government is trying hard to provide stimulus to their respective economies in order to increase aggregate demand, we need to analyze role of these fiscal multipliers.

As we know major fiscal policy instruments are government spending and taxation, which impact aggregate demand, resource allocation and income distribution. In current slowdown when worldwide governments are resorting to excessive government spending in order to raise demand, multiplier effects of spending on economic output turns out to be small.

First lets analyze the case where fiscal multiplier is 1, what does this imply- this simply means that an increase of one unit in government spending will lead to an increase by one unit in real gross domestic products (GDP) .Therefore , added public goods are provided free of cost to the society. This outcome is no magic but optimal utilization of resources like labor and capital, which add to production of more good and services.

If multiplier is greater than 1 , ( multipliers via government spending range usually between 1.5 to 2 ) in this gross domestic product rises more than government expenditure. Thus we have additional goods and services which give the room for to raise private consumption and investment.

Historic view
We all know about the great depression of 1930’s, it was the time when the Keynesian tonic was applied to the much damaged US economy. It is much evident from past experience that government spending is linked to overall business fluctuations in the economy. In times of World War II enormous fiscal expansion was done in terms of increased defense expenditure, which led to freedom of global economy from grip of great depression. This in turn proves the existence of large multipliers.

But going by studies of economists some flaws of Keynesian theory come to highlight. According to them the increase of US defense expenditure led to a large multiplier of 0.8.However if we analyze it the other way round, it gives us a very practical and real picture. Accordingly, the increase in war expenditure led to erosion in other components which comprises the GDP. There was massive down surge witnessed in private investment, nonmilitary government expenditure, and net exports. This resulted in a depressive effect rather than a multiplier effect. However in times of peace increase in government expenditure had led to large multipliers. All growth from 1941 to 1945 cannot be attributed to military outlays, many economists believe that multiplier during peace time was significantly different from zero.

Current scenario
The major question comes back to the current crisis, with global economy facing a severe downtrend; will government stimulus lead to large multipliers?

If we compare American economy of 2001 with today we will get a much clearer picture. In 2001 though economy was in recession but at that time there was room for households to use their tax cuts as down payment for car or cover their costs of mortgage refinance.

In current phase credit markets are bruised badly, therefore financial institutions won’t be able to take advantage of income generated by increased government spending to the same extent leading to much smaller multipliers.

Markets Free Fall: Despite of RBI rate cut & low Infaltion

Tackling the global finacial meltdown , RBI yestrday came with the move of cutting repo rate and reverse repo rate by 50 bs points. Currently Repo Rate ( the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks) stands at 5% and Reverse Repo rate ( the rate at which banks lend to RBI) stands at 3.5%.

The move was taken in view to ease lending rates for corporate india and individiual borrowers in order to create demand in economy. however markets responded negatively to this move by plunging in red , falling by 261.14 points ending at 8185.35. lot of selling pressure came in from largecap stocks all making new 52 weeks low.

Even low inflation numbers couldnt turn up the market sentiments. Inflation came down to 3.03% for the week ended feburary 21.

Renewed FII selling is taking our markets down. However, next week a global rally can be expected as the US markets are in the highly oversold zone.

Gold Exchange Traded Funds

Gold has remained one of the favorite avenues of investment for Indians. Around 23% of investment is done in gold by Indians.

Amid the current global turmoil and the bear run share-market scenario, people are going for the traditional and safer option of investment: gold. They are investing in the yellow metal in a significant volume. With the advantages of gold over any other form of investment — security being the most desired — people are buying gold in all forms, be it coins, biscuits or jewellery, besides exploring new options like Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
I have seen many people are not familiar with gold ETF, which have become quite significant in past few years. So this post in brief will provide readers to explore this avenue of investment in this downturn.

What are ETF’s?
A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold.

What is Gold ETF?
Gold ETFs provided investors a means of participating in the gold bullion market without the necessity of taking physical delivery of gold, and to buy and sell that participation through the trading of a security on stock exchange. Gold ETF would be a passive investment; so, when gold prices move up, the ETF appreciates and when gold prices move down, the ETF loses value.
Gold ETF provides return that before expenses closely corresponds to the returns provided by physical gold. Each unit is approximately equal to price of 1 gram gold. But, there are Gold ETFs which also provide a unit which is approximately equal to the price of ½ gram of Gold.

Brief history
The first proposal of a gold exchange traded fund was originated by an Indian company called Benchmark Asset Management; a proposal was launched with the SEBI (Securities Exchange Board Of India) in 2002. This proposal was not approved at that time.
The Australia Stock Exchange was the first to launch a gold exchange traded fund in 2003 by Gold Bullion Securities under the symbol ‘GOLD’. This fund was fully backed, insured and deposited by gold bullion.

Difference between Gold Etf’s & Mutual Funds
Disparate Asset Classes
It is the nature of asset classes which differentiate gold etfs and mutual funds from each other. While former falls under the category of commodities, later comes under equity category. In Gold Etfs investor is vested with the opportunity, to invest in units of gold, which are traded on exchange as single stock. The units issued under the scheme represent the value of gold held in scheme. However in case of mutual funds, fund mangers invest in equity and equity related securities of gold mining companies. Since gold mining companies are not listed on Indian stock exchanges, the gold mutual funds invest in world gold funds that invest in gold mining companies across the world.

Returns attainable
Basic motive behind any investment is to gain high returns. The world gold fund has given absolute returns of 31.9% in the period since its inception in August 2007 to July 2008. Most financial advisors advise that investment in gold must be made for the purpose of diversification and at any point in time, about 10-15% of your assets must be invested in gold.

Nature of funds
Basic aim of both the funds is another important point which differentiates both the funds from each other. “The fund simply buys and holds gold on behalf of the investor without actively managing it. The aim is to give returns as close as possible, post-expenses, to that given for gold as a commodity,” however when investing in a mutual fund, the investor can rely on the expertise of a fund manager who indulges in active portfolio management and is able to make crucial decisions regarding selecting stocks of gold companies.

Benefits of trading in ETF’S
In ETf’s investors have the opportunity of buying as less as 1 unit on the exchange. Investors don’t have to pay entry or exit load and expenses on brokerage are less. Here gold etf’s score over mutual funds as in case of later investor has to bear defined load structure, entry and exit loads and other expenses.

There are five gold ETFs in the market today, namely Gold BeEs, Kotak Gold, Quantum Gold, Reliance Gold, and UTI Gold ETF. According to data published by Value research online, the returns from all the gold ETFs over the last one year have been practically identical.

IF you take a look at gold prices in the past few months, they have been moving in just one direction-- upwards. From Rs 10, 650 for 10 grams last January 2008, the price has moved to Rs 15,490 today. Gold price is at a seven month high and is up by 10% since January this year. The World Gold Council reports that global demand was up by 4 per cent in 2008.

Gold and stock markets have negative correlation, which can be witnessed in current scenario where volatility in stock markets have led to sky rocketing gold prices.

In 2009 itself Gold etf’s have outperformed gold mutual funds. ETFs have given 29 per cent returns in 2008 and over 8 per cent till now in 2009. In this current financial turmoil investing in shining yellow metal turns out to be the safest bet!!